Does draft pick position really matter in baseball?

Here’s a possibly useful chart that may answer whether it matters in baseball whether a team gets the first pick in the draft, or falls to a later pick.  Our initial thought may be that it matters more in other sports, but it still clearly matters in baseball.  These numbers are muddled a bit by the fact that some teams purposely draft a player with less potential who demands a lower signing bonus early in the draft.  Even with that in mind, it does seem that the first pick is significantly better than later picks.

The blue line is the average career WAR (from of players drafted in that round, going back to 1990.  The red line is the number of players drafted before 2009 (6 years ago) who have a WAR of less than 0.1.  So the red line is the number of players drafted in that round who never contributed significantly at the major league level.


What we see is that player quality drops off significantly after the first rounds, and your chance of drafting a bust rises dramatically after round 4.  That being said, I think there’s a kind of downward spiral that may happen if a team loses too much.  Chemistry and culture probably make a big difference, and so the Braves may be better off winning as much as they can the last few weeks of the season, grabbing a pick between 2 and 4, and trying to build that culture into something that wins in 2017 when they move into their new stadium.  What do you think?

What did the in-season moves do to the Braves’ pitching staff?

Here’s the list of all of the Braves pitchers who had a positive WAR this season up to now, according to

Shelby Miller (4.1)

Alex Wood* (2.4)

Jim Johnson* (1.5)

Julio Teheran (1.0)

Arodys Vizcaino (0.8)

Jason Grilli* (0.6)

Luis Avilan* (0.6)

Jason Frasor* (0.3)

Michael Kohn* (0.2)

Ryan Weber (0.1)

Peter Moylan (0.1)

You may have guessed where I’m going.  The players with an asterisk are no longer on the major league roster.  Wood, Johnson and Avilan were traded to the Dodgers.  Grilli is out for the year with an injury, Frasor was released, and Kohn was sent back to AAA.  Every other pitcher you may have seen this year for the Braves has a negative WAR.  That means that if you replaced that player with an average major leaguer the results would have been better.  The Braves have continued to pitch players like Mike Foltynewicz and Matt Wisler because they need major league time to be able to grow into quality major leaguers.  The future looks bright!…. okay, the future is at least coming quickly.


The Mathematics of Losing Streaks

As of today’s game, the Braves have lost 12 games in a row.  They are now 54-83, for a winning percentage of 39.4%.  The chances of losing 12 games in a row when you have a 39.4% chance of winning (I know, it was higher at the beginning of the streak but bear with me) is 0.606 or 60.6% (their losing chance) to the 12th power.  The result is 0.0025 or 0.25%.  That means if the Braves played 12 consecutive games at this success level, they would only lose 12 in a row once in every 400 attempts at 12 games in a row.  We wouldn’t expect it to happen very often, and it hasn’t.  The last time they lost 12 in a row was 1977, when they went on to lose 17 in a row.  To be included on this list of longest losing streaks in major league history they’ll need to get to 18 games.  At their current win%, the chances of them losing another 6 in a row could be estimated at 5% (0.606 to the 6th power).  Given the way the season is going, I’m not sure I would take a 20-1 bet against the Braves to get to 18.

By the way, the franchise record is 19 games lost in a row set by the 1906 Boston Bean-eaters (as the Braves we known at the time).  Around the turn of the century, all of the best players from their 1890s dynasty team had been raided by the Boston Americans (later the Red Sox) of the rival American League which could pay their players more.  The 1907 team took 7 years to win the World Series with the Miracle Braces of 1914, and the 1977 Braves took another 5 years to get to relevance.  Let’s hope this rebuilding project is quicker!

John’s Coppolella’s Strategy for the Turnaround

Two big points from the John Coppolella, the Assistant General Manager interviewed during this weekend’s Nationals series.

  1. The Braves minor league system has gone from 29th in the majors (out of 31 teams) to Keith Law of ESPN ranking them 2nd this summer after the draft.
  2. The (the Braves) are not looking to a 5-7 year rebuild a la the Astros and the Cubs, but two down years followed by success.  Getting rid of the contracts they had to provide flexibility going into the 2017 seems like the way to go.

In the meantime, to be honest, I’m only watching the Braves games on the At Bat app that they win.  Which means I’ve been watching a whole lot.  A watch a few live, but the pitching has been fairly depressing the last month or so.  They have traded their two best bullpen arms (Avilan and Johnson) and a middle-of-the-rotation starter (Alex Wood), along with a bunch of their veteran hitters.  The team can’t score enough, and they simply have no good options for relied in close games.  Arodys Vizcaino is not quite there, but may end up finding success in limited middle relief situations.

In the coming weeks, I’ll be providing some more analysis of their prospects and the possibilities for the future.

Hope is still alive, but at this point… wait ’till next year.  (or maybe 2017)

How I Voted for the Braves “Franchise Four”

As part of this year’s all-star game, Major League Baseball is asking fans to vote for their franchise four, the top players in the history of their franchise.  I assume the purpose of this exercise is to help celebrate the history of a franchise, but it appears to be designed to maximize the chance that the persons chosen are alive and able to be on the field during game.  Here are the nominations on the Braves franchise four page (I’ve also included the stats from that page):

Hank Aaron: .305 AVG, 755 HR, 2,297 RBI

Eddie Mathews: .271, 512 HR, 1,453 RBI

Tom Glavine: 305 Wins, 3.54 ERA, 2,607 Ks

Dale Murphy: .265 AVG, 398 HR, 1,266 RBI

Chipper Jones: .303 AVG, 468 HR, 1,623 RBI

John Smoltz: 213 Wins, 3.33 ERA, 3,084 Ks

Greg Maddux: 355 Wins, 3.16 ERA, 3,371 Ks

Warren Spahn: 363 Wins, 3.09 ERA, 2,583 Ks

There are lots of problem here, but let me list a few of my opinions:

1) The stats they have chosen are misleading.  For example, using batting average to describe Dale Murphy’s contribution in the 1980s is like saying that Home Run Baker was a terrible home run hitter because he only hit 96 career home runs.  That would overlook the fact that he lead the American League in Home Runs in 1914 with 9.  Yup, nine.  Nobody hit a lot of home runs in the dead ball era.  In 1982 and 1983, Dale Murphy won consecutive MVPs with a .281 and .302 batting average.  In both years he hit 36 Home Runs.  The National League collectively hit .258 in 1982 and .255 in 1983.  In 1930, the National League collectively hit .303.  In 1999 (perhaps at a peak of the so-called “steroid era”) the league average was .266.  So Murphy had a batting average which tied for 6th in the NL, and it was lower than the league average in 1930.  Even if we forget the specifics, this should make clear that “Franchise Four” needs statistics that more easily show players of different eras.

Here’s what this list would look like if we went with a franchise WAR contribution list from :(players in bold are not on the MLB list)

1. Hank Aaron (142 WAR)

2. Kid Nichols (108 WAR)

3. Warren Spahn (99 WAR)

4. Eddie Mathews (94 WAR)

5. Phil Niekro (89 WAR)

6. Chipper Jones (85 WAR)

7. John Smoltz (70 WAR)

8. Greg Maddux (67 WAR)

The next three are: Glavine (64), Andruw Jones (60), Murphy (46).

Keep in mind the career WAR emphasizes long-term contributions over short-term dominance, but our MLB list still seems odd.  Kid Nichols and Phil Niekro (who is alive) aren’t on the list, but Dale Murphy is on the list over Andruw Jones who was a statistically better player.

Of course this is a fan vote, and Dale Murphy is a favorite of every Braves fan who watched him play.  In an era of cocaine abuse and sandpapered baseballs, he had the wholesome image that every dad wanted their children to emulate.  He belongs on the list.

2) So who the heck is Kid Nichols?

Glad you asked.  He might be the best pitcher you’ve never heard of.  He played for the Braves (when they were the Boston Beaneaters) from 1890 until 1901.  In that time, he had a record of 329 Wins and 183 Losses, with an ERA of 3.00 in 621 Games, 532 of which he started and completed.  He is 17th all-time in career WAR.  He lead the National League in WAR three times, and was in the top 10 in the League 11 times.  He is 7th all-time in career wins.  He is 15th in all-time career ERA+, which is ERA adjusted for ballparks.  He lived long enough to be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1949, four years before his death.

3) So what would you do with this list, tough guy?

There’s not too much wrong with the list.  I’m fine with the 8 they chose, but they should include better stats.  They should say that Murphy won two consecutive MVPs and 5 consecutive gold gloves.  That Maddux won 3 consecutive Cy Young awards for the Braves, that sort of thing.  I would also kick Glavine and Maddux off the list for Nichols and Niekro.  Glavine’s stats aren’t as good as either, and Maddux did too much work for other teams.  This is a franchise list, not a list of great players who spent some time with your club.  That being said, I voted for Aaron, Murphy and Spahn.  (Yes, I grew up in the 1980s and Murphy is a hero of mine).  And yes, I wrote in Kid Nichols.





26 Different Batting Orders in 26 Games means….

Cut4 wrote up the situation.  The Braves have used 26 different combinations of batters in the first 26 games of the season.  If you’re a nerdish baseball fan like myself, you thought “I wonder how many combinations are possible?”  Well, the answer is 741,354,768,000 if you just solve for permutations of 9 batters from a 25-man roster.  Of course, it’s only 362,880 combinations if you have the same 9 players in every game.  If we take the 741 billion number, we can reach new levels of nerd-dom rather quickly.

If Freddie Gonzalez had cloned players delivered daily to the ballpark (so they never went on the disabled list, grew old, or retired), how long would it take Freddie (or the future clone-Freddies) to get through all of the 741 billion combinations?  If they only played 162 games every year and never reached the playoffs (today’s roster, remember), it would take the Braves just over 4.5 billion years to use all of the combinations.  Astro-physisicist types suggest that the sun only has about 5 billion years of hydrogen left.  We have to get on this.

If we cloned our best possible lineup and got rid of all platoons, it would only take 2,240 years to use up all of the possible combinations.  That means on the 27th game of the season in the year 4255 we would end up repeating a line-up.

By the way, based on season-to-date WAR, that lineup would (arguably) be Shelby Miller pitching to Bethancourt, with Freeman, Peterson, Simmons and Kelly Johnson in the infield, with Gomes, Maybin and Markakis in the outfield.

How are the platoons for the Braves working out? keeps data on wins above average (WAA) for each player, but for a team like the Braves with so many platoon positions, the better chart is the Wins above average for each position.  Here’s what the information for the National League looks like as of this morning:



In this chart, the blue bars are the current National League averages, and the red bars are the current Atlanta Braves WAA for each position.  What we see is that every platoon position (2B, 3B, LF, CF) are all underperforming.  Andrelton Simmons is dominating, and the bullpen as a group, Nick Markakis in Right Field and Freddie Freeman are all exceeding the league average.  The Braves biggest disappointment would appear be to be 3rd base, where Chris Johnson (24 plate appearances), Alberto Callaspo (24 as well) and Philip Gosselin (5) have a combined -0.4 WAA in all bats.

Braves Proving Doubters Wrong… For Now

The Braves are now 8-4 after wrapping up their 3-game series in Toronto with 2 wins.  They are now:

  • 4th in the League in runs scored per game
  • 3rd in the League in home runs
  • 6th in stolen bases
  • 4th in fewest men left on base
  • 5th in fewest runs given up per game
  • 8th in ERA
  • 1st fewest defensive errors
  • 3rd in defensive efficiency

What can we conclude?  The Braves’ pitching has been solid, but not dominating.  Their bullpen has been better than it can be expected to be for the rest of the season, and the offense has been better than could’ve been expected.  Most likely, the starting pitching will improve, the bullpen will fall back closer to league average, and the offense will have to lean more on run manufacturing rather than power.  That will all happen if these various part of the team “regress to the mean” as the saying goes among statisticians, but we know that the games must be played on the field, and not on a spreadsheet.

Braves League Rankings

As of the middle of the game, here are the Braves National League rankings.

Braves Runs Scores and ERA with League Averages - 4-15-15

Braves Season Averages and League Averages - 4-15-15

Braves Season Totals and League Averages - 4-15-15


What do we see?

  • The Braves offense has been outstanding, cutting way down on their strikeout rate from last year.  That has translated into grounding into a few more double plays, but they are leaving less runners on base than the league average as well.
  • Their home run totals no longer dominate the league, but with an average amount of home runs and an above average runs per game, the Braves are manufacturing runs at a better rate than the rest of the league.
  • The increased speed has meant a higher slugging percentage than the rest of the league, even when their home runs are right at the league average.

What are Juan Jaime’s chances of staying in the majors long-term?

Juan Jaime is your classic Rick Vaughn-style pitcher.  He has career numbers, averaged out to 162 games, that include 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings (great!) and 8.6 walks per nine innings (eek!).  For fun, I looked up on the list of all pitchers in major league history who had a season with at least these numbers.  The most innings ever pitched in such a season is John Parrish’s 2005 Oriole campaign, when he pitched 17 1/3 innings.  There are basically three kinds of players on this list, 1) Players who are not good at baseball and didn’t have long careers, 2) Players who normally do not pitch (Cardinal utility fielder Skip Schumaker made the list in 2011), and 3) Players who were going to be amazing with a bit more seasoning.

In the third category, the list includes Nolan Ryan’s 1966 season with the Mets (age 19), Sid Fernandez’s 1983 season with the Dodgers (age 20) and Chan Ho Park’s 1994 season with the Dodgers (age 21).

The list also includes a name well-known to long time Braves fans, Joey Devine’s 2006 season.

While yesterday’s game against the Mets wasn’t quite as bad as the numbers would indicate since the third walk was intentional, he was missing the strike zone.  I’m not a major league catcher, so I don’t know all of the subtleties of calling a game and framing pitches, but I would have preferred A.J. Pierzynski to put the glove down in the middle of the zone rather than asking the rookie to go for the corners.

The problem is familiar to those of us who play golf.  If you swing as hard as you can, you often drastically increase the chance of missing the fairway off the tee.  The magic zone seems to be swinging about 80-90% of your maximum effort.  If Jaime throws at 80-90% effort, he may be much more hittable.  He doesn’t have any secondary pitches.  His model may be the pitcher who started for the Mets, Bartolo Colon.  If Jaime falls behind, he needs to slow down the speed and try to hit a corner with his fastball.  He may not be able to do that in the middle of an at bat, and that may be the reason his career is shorter than it could be.